this is bbc news. the headlines: a heatwave sweeps across europe - record temperatures being recorded for the hottest day ever, for june. the heat triggers wildfires in turkey - 50,000 people have now been evacuated from their homes. izmir airport has been forced to close. this is the scene live at the house of commons - where liz kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is about to detail proposed changes to the welfare system - that statement expected any minute. let me just show if you some of the live pictures before we move on. want to take the first

bill to seville, and show you the pictures there. right across europe, they are trying to get through these days of extreme heat, its only different parts of europe. it is over 40 degrees. here we're getting the latest from madrid, these are pictures from seville, but similar pictures in paris, and throughout the course of today's programme we will return to this story. the heatwave and the consequences, and get more analysis and try to make an assessment of just how long we are likely to have these sorts of scenes. i want to take you from that, to the house of commons. because we are also expecting, in the next few minutes, a statement from liz kendall. keep an eye, in the next half hour on the backbenches. last week it was the labour rebels, was a and the concessions on friday has

brought a lot of them on board, but still a very long number -- high number, resistant to these changes. critical changes in the welfare bill. liz kendall will give more of those details to try and give more of those mps back on board. we'll be there in the house of commons in the next few minutes to hear the work and pensions secretary. let's stay without issue. as i've been saying, the government has been forced into a partial retreat on its welfare reforms. ministers felt the need to act because the number of working people claiming health and discipline billeted benefits in recent -- discipline -- disciplinary -- disability benefits. the number of people who have been claiming health related benefits has been rising. 2.8 million working age adults in

england and wales claimed either disability or incapacity benefits. today, it has grown to around 4 million. around one in ten these are expected to rise in the coming years. so why have they been rising? around seven and a half percent in 2024, up from around 4% in 2002, the area shown in red is the proportion of claimants where the main condition is cited as a mental or as you can see, this has been driving the overall increase since 2019. and young people are more likely to claim mental health conditions than physical ones. so how those assessments for access to benefits made?

before the pandemic, 75% of claims were generally assessed help to have feet face-to-face by a professional. that was suspended during the pandemic, and instead applicants were assessed by telephone or video call. but this remote assessment system has largely persisted since, with less than 10% of assessments face-to-face, today, according to the government. some have suggested that more people may have applied in the knowledge that they would not be subjected to a potentially stressful face-to-face assessment. but there isn't any substantive evidence to demonstrate that one way or another. the government reforms did propose to increase the face-to-face assessments. there is some evidence that the underlying mental health of the population has worsened in recent years, but there are other potential factors such as the fact that people can often get more money for month from health related benefits like

personal independence payments than other standard forms of benefits like universal credit or jobseeker's allowance. the bottom line is that independent researchers are still not confident over what has been driving this concerning trend of rising claims. the uncertainty compounds the uncertainty for government, when it comes to reforming the system. let me take you back to the house of commons. we believe the live pictures on the screen, because the session is about to start. so some of the reasons why the government want to reform the system. the big question is, not perhaps the need to do it, but how they've done it. so we had the concessions on friday, but is there still a chance that the government loses this vote tomorrow? i think most sides have been saying that it's

likely that the government will now win this vote. there will still be a sizeable labour rebellion, when the vote happens tomorrow. on friday, i was hearing that around 50 mps, labour mps could vote against this. those numbers don't seem to change massively over the weekend, given that we know whips and ministers have been calling up mps and trying to reassure them. you may have expected those numbers to dwindle a bit. but they don't appear to have done. today, the thing people are talking about is a new bit of government modelling, about how many people could go into poverty because of these changes. now, a few months ago, when initial plans were public, the governments initial impact assessment said around 250,000 people could be pushed into apollo let poverty. big concessions happened, which the prime instigator those rebels, and today we have new

government modelling which suggest that up 250,000 people would still be pushed poverty. the government say that is not the full picture, that it doesn't take into account various other things that bring in to try and get people back into work. but no doubt, that 150,000 figure will come up in the house of commons in a few moments time. labour backbenchers who are still concerned about this, who are still concerned about this... that session about to start. we are determined to build a fair society and achieve their ambitions. we know, as all labour governments know, that the only way of unlocking the potential of individuals and our country as a whole, is when we collectively provide real opportunities and real support. i am proud of the steps that

this government has already taken to deliver on our promise of a better future for all. we are creating more good jobs in every part of the country, in order in let including a modern industrial strategy and plans for clean energy. order. can i say to the front bench, if you're not interested, i know my constituents are, so please, i expect the same courtesy when you speak. we are investing in our vital transport infrastructure, in skills, and in getting the nhs back on its feet. our landmark employment rights bill will improve the quality of work, and i increases in the national minimum wage i helping work pay. alongside these vital steps, we also need to reform the welfare state. the principle set out in our pathways to work green paper

are rooted in values, i know, many mps share. that those who can work, must work, but need proper support to do so. those who can never work must be protected. and that the welfare state must be fair both for those who need support, and for taxpayers. so it is sustainable for generations to come. but the system we inherited from the party opposite is failing on all these fronts. it incentivises people to define themselves as incapable of work just to be able to afford to live. it then write them off, and denies them any help and denies any help or support. the result is 2.8 million of our fellow citizens are now out of work due to long-term sickness, almost 1 million young people not in education, employment or training. that is a staggering

one in eight of all young people. in the future sustainability of the system has also been put at risk with a number of people on personal independence payments set to more than double this decade, to over 4 million. with awards increasing at twice the rate of increases in the prevalence of disabled people in our society, adding 1000 new pip awards every single day. i know that mps on this side of the house have welcomed many aspects of our reforms. our plans to bring in the first ever sustained, above inflation rise to the universal credit standard allowance. the first permanent real terms increase in the headline rate of out of work benefits since the 1970s. an historic change in the direction of public policy. the biggest ever investment in employment support for sick and disabled people, quadrupling

what we inherited from the tories to £1 billion per year. our plan is to ensure that people with severe, lifelong health conditions will never be reassessed, removing all the unnecessary and unacceptable anxiety this brings. and our plans to legislate for a right to trial. guaranteed that trying for work, in and of itself, will never lead to a benefit reassessment. this will give people the confidence to take the plunge and try work, something many organisations have called for four years. but mr speaker, there have been many concerns, real concerns, about our initial proposal. we have listened carefully. we are making positive changes as a result. first and foremost, many members of this house, alongside disabled people and their organisations, have been very concerned about requiring existing claimants to score a minimum of four points on at

least one activity to be eligible for the daily living component of pip, when they are reassessed after november 2026. they have been concerned that the pace of change was too fast. i fully understand that even though nine out of ten people claiming pip, when the changes come in, would be unaffected by the end of this parliament, that this has caused deep and widespread anxiety amongst existing claimants. they rely on the income from pip, for so many different aspects of their life. so we will now ensure that the new four point requirement will only apply to new claims from november 2026. this means no existing claimants will lose pip because of the changes brought forward in this bill. and existing claimants, passport of benefits like carer's allowance, will continue to get them to. some people have said that they are

concerned it will create a two tier system. but i would say to the house, including members of the opposite bench, that our benefit system often... lives have been built around that support and it is difficult for people to adjust. for example, some people still receive the severe disablement allowance, which is closed to new claimants in 2001. when labour introduced a local housing allowance in 2008, existing claimants aid on the old higher rates of housing benefit, and many people are still on dla, which replaced pip in 2013. so we believe that protecting existing claimants, while focusing on higher needs for new claimants, strikes the right and fair balance. the second important question, raised by members, was seeing

more details of our wider review of the pip assessment, before being asked to vote on the changes in this bill. many mps also want to know the views and voices of disabled people will be heard at the heart of our plans. so we have, today, published the terms of reference for our wider pip review, led by the minister for social security and disability, to ensure this vital benefit is fit for the future, taking account of changes in society since it was first introduced. the review will look at the role of the pip assessment, including activities, descriptors, and the associated points, to ensure these properly capture the impact of long-term health conditions and disability in the modern world. and it will be co-produced with disabled people. their organisations, clinicians, other experts, and mps. before they will report to the

secretary of state by autumn next year and implemented as soon possible thereafter. the third issue of concern was that our plans to freeze the universal credit health top up for existing claimants and for future claimants, with severe lifelong health conditions and those at the end-of-life, would not protect incomes in real terms even with the increase in the universal credit standard allowance. so i can today confirm that we will ensure that these groups, combined value of the universal credit standard allowance and the health top up will rise at least in line with inflation. protecting their incomes from these benefits in real terms every year, for the rest of this parliament. together with the changes to our proposal for pip, this will ensure no existing claimants are put into poverty as a result of the changes in this bill. and

finally, mr speaker, while there has been widespread support for the extra investment we are putting into employment support for sick and disabled people, i know that honourable members on this side of the house have been concerned that this isn't enough. so i can today announced that we are putting an additional £300 million into employment support for sick and disabled people. so we will delivering a total of £600 million for support next year, £800 million thereafter, and £1 billion in 2829. increasing our total support in 3.8 billion. so disabled people who can work, should not have to wait to have the chance to work at everyone else. and the measures we are announcing today will cost around £2.5 billion in 2029 - 2030. so the overall costings of our reform package

will be certified by the obr in the normal play that way at the next fiscal event. mr speaker, welfare reform is never easy. but it is essential. because there is no route to a quality or social justice based on greater benefit spending alone. the path to a fairer society where everyone can thrive, where people who cannot work at the support they need, where we protect those who are not work, that is the seat that we seek to build. our plans are rooted in fairness for those who need support and for taxpayers, they're about ensuring the welfare state survives, so it provides a safety net for generations to come. above all, our reforms are rooted in our fundamental belief that everyone can fulfil their potential and lift the hopes and dreams if we provide them with the right help and

support. this is the better future we seek to build for our constituents and our country, and i commend this statement to the house. thank you mr speaker, and i think the right honourable lady for her statement. this is a government in chaos. open rebellion from their own backbenchers, unfunded u-turns costing billions, and welfare plans that are not worth the paper they are written on. their latest idea is a two tier welfare system to trap people in a lifetime of benefits and deny them the dignity of work, while leaving the taxpayer to pick up the ever-growing bill. mr speaker, it is a long held conservative belief that those who can work should work. security and purpose, that's why we lunched universal credit, simplifying complex benefits and ensuring work always paid. and it works. during the decade up to the

pandemic, we got the number of people on benefits and the benefits built itself down. 800 jobs were created for every day that we were in office. giving millions of people the dignity and security that work brings. but then, during the pandemic, we saw something new. the health and disability bits of our benefit system started to break. the bill is forecasted £100 billion by 2030, one in every £4 of income tax will be spent on health and disability benefits, more than the entire defence budget. this is not fair for the taxpayer, not fair for people who are written off, and certainly not sustainable for the country. yet, despite labour having 14 years of opposition, and now a year in government, they still don't have a plan to bring down the welfare bill or get people into work. what we now have before us is a rushed and chaotic compromise. it is not reform in

any sense of the word. it is woefully unambitious about savings, conspicuously lacks compassion, and achieves no meaningful change in a system we all know is broken. thanks to the governance latest climb-down, we are left with a plan that will just save 2.5 billion of a £100 billion bill, by introducing a two tier system. two peoples diagnosed with parkinson's a week apart will clear up different levels of support, all to clear up a labour argument. these reforms won't get a single person into work. the idea that workers are guiding motivation for the changes is laughable. and it's not that are not things that the government can can't do. ... they could say today that they would make all sickness benefit assessments

face-to-face. they could get a grip of the rise in claims for common mental health problems, like anxiety and depression. claims for these, and neurodevelopmental conditions like adhd, are the main reason for the steep rise in sickness benefits, and make up more than half of new claims. you could save up to £9 billion by reforming its benefits, but nothing we have seen from labour over the last couple of weeks suggests they have the courage and conviction to grip this problem. in the meantime, i welfare bill will only continue to rise. mr speaker, we agree on the need for reform and have set out under what conditions we would support the government. first, the welfare budget must come down. second, we must get people back into work, and third there must be no new tax rises to pay for increases in welfare spending. with the welfare bill ever-growing, unemployment riding let rising, the bill

fails on all accounts. so will the right honourable lady confirm whether the changes she is announcing today will be paid for through borrowing or through taxation? could i ask, where these good job she claims to creating, when vacancies are going down and unemployment is going up? as she read the impact assessment for their employment rights bill, which makes it clear that they will be harder for people to find work as a result. why did it take them a year to publish the terms of reference for their pip assessment review, and when can we expect changes if it doesn't report back until autumn 2026. could i try one more time to ask what the differences between her right to try guarantee, and a chance to work guarantee. finally, mr speaker, is this it? are there any more savings? are they

going to get any more people into work? is this the extent of their ambition for reforming the welfare system during this time in office was back in five years' time, is this going to be her legacy? well, i'm a listening mode, so i listen carefully to what the honourable lady said. the strategy seems to be to rail against the problems she and her party created. she had a bit of jet spa to talk about a two tier system. that's precisely what members did, when they protected people on that legacy benefits, when they replaced dla with pip. they are part of that, and they should admit that. she said we should bring back face-to-face reassessments. we are. because they switch them off. to be honest, i'm still no clearer about what their policy actually is. she and the shadow chancellor claimed they had a plan to cut £12 billion for the welfare bill in their manifesto. the truth is, it was nothing but a vague idea about turning pip into vouchers. she

talks about fitz notes. we try to reform the wrap three or four times, it completely failed, as have all their other efforts. the one change they did propose was the workability assessment, and there proposal was ruled illegal by the courts. one thing is the mess they left our country in. disability benefits doubling, the tax to taxpayers soaring to, we are putting in place real reforms based on our values. fair for those who need support and for taxpayers, that is the leadership this country reserves. the chair of the select committee, debbie abraham. i'm very grateful for the statement, and i agree we must reform our social security system. under the previous government, neither supported or protected disabled people. i'm also very supportive of the

principles that the government has set out. but can i just query some of the points that she has said. particularly, a new pip assessment process under the pip review, that the minister for social security and disability will be undertaken. she said that the four points won't apply until november 2026. and that the review will report in november 2026. but surely, the pip review should determine the new process if this is being truly co-produced with disabled people and their organisations. the review should determine both the new process, the new points, and the new descriptors. we shouldn't predetermine these four points at the moment. i thank my honourable friend for her

question, i'm going to be looking forward to even evidence about our proposals to the select committee. the bill brings forward a four-point requirement... this will only apply to new claimants. we are also committed to this wider review of pip, so it's fit for the future. that will include considering the assessment criteria, the activities descriptors, and the associated points, to ensure that they properly reflect the impact of disability in today's world. the review will conclude by autumn 2026 and we will then implement any changes arising from that as quickly as possible. i would say that we have to get the right balance here, because we do seek to, i've been a long-standing

champion of co-production, including when i was a shadow minister for social care, we have to do that properly. but a four-point minimum will be in place for new claimants as we used to make changes for the future. the prime minister, and many ministers have identified that the benefit system is broken. the cost of it is skyrocketing. that balancing the books on the backs of the poor is wrong headed in the extreme. the proposals today are a leap into the dark. colleagues, liberal democrat colleagues and i, very concerned that these proposals are rushed proposals and legislation that is is often wrong, with unintended consequences. as liberal democrats and the member of parliament for torbay, we are really concerned about disabled and long-term sick, their children, their families, and also carers. there are some root causes here. our broken nhs and social care system

needs to be resolved so that there is the support for those who are in most need. our access to work scheme is broken and needs resolving as a matter of urgency. there are some real challenges and so i hope the minister will give some genuine answers around what consultation has the minister undertaken with carers. and also, what cost of shunting have you identified for our care and social needs system, and finally, will the minister consider withdrawing these proposals so that there is adequate consultation and scrutiny to avoid any bystanders being hit by these proposals? the honourable gentleman, i think him for his question. i know he cares passionately about these issues. he raises the urgent need to make sure our nhs is back on its feet, and we are

bidding to make a difference. with waiting lists down for the first time in two years, creating 4 million appointments, in our first year, that is more than we promised. he talks about the failure of access to work. i agree. as part of the green paper we are looking to reform it so that it is available for more people. and we passionately care about family care, as i said in my statement, existing benefit claimants will be protected as a result of the changes announced today, and all those carers who get those carer allowance because it is a past ported benefits. i would say to him too, we are looking at the future of social care, with the review. the reason we bring these changes forward is that we don't think it is acceptable that the uk has one of the widest disability employment gaps in western europe, at 28%, much higher than germany, france and sweden. we think

that's acceptable, we want to change it, and that's why we are making these reforms. can we try and speed up the questions and answers? i'm just thinking about the numbers, i'd want understand why. if you're just joining us, welcome to bbc news. we are watching liz kendall, the work and pensions secretary, outlining a statement on the welfare changes. all of that ahead of tomorrow's crucial vote. this is a flagship policy of the government, the changes they have planned, but we have seen rebellion with a whole host of government concessions being forced out of the prime minister downwards. so we are on this session and we have gone through the front bench statements. in a few minutes we will see a number of labour backbenchers give their view and ask questions, and that will be absolutely